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6. Compare Probability Calculations to Actual Dice Rolls
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In the previous video, you simulated rolling dice by using a spreadsheet function.

In this video, you will calculate the actual percentage of the time each possible outcome was rolled.

Then, you will compare the actual percentages to the probability percentages you calculated earlier.

To start, find the actual percentage of each outcome in your simulation by using the same division formula you used to calculate probability.

You simulated rolling the dice eleven times.

And calculated the number of times each number was rolled in column R.

So, in this example, the formula in column S is R3 divided by eleven.

Copy the formula to the rest of the column.

Then, convert the decimals to percentages rounded to the tenths place.

Nice work!

To make it easier to compare your actual results with the probability you calculated earlier, hide the columns you don’t need to see right now.

You can unhide the columns at any time.

In your calculations, you found that you had a 2.8 percent chance of rolling an outcome of two.

Compare that to the percentage in your simulation.

Compare other outcomes as well.

You may find that your simulated outcomes differ significantly from the probable outcomes.

Remember that probability only tells you how likely it is that something may happen.

It’s not a perfect prediction.

Once again, recall the number you picked at the beginning of the lesson and find the percentage of its occurrence in your simulation.

And highlight that in your spreadsheet.

If your teacher rolled the dice eleven times, and everyone who chose the actual numbers rolled got the longer lunch period, would you have won the privilege?

Finally, look at the most probable outcome.

Was it a winner after all?

Great job calculating probability!

Move on to the next video to wrap up the lesson.

Now, it’s your turn: Calculate the Actual Percentage Rolled, Hide unnecessary columns, And compare the actual to the probable outcomes.

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Instructions
  1. Calculate the actual percentage rolled.
  2. Hide unnecessary columns.
  3. Compare the actual to the probable outcomes.
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